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Home Architecture, security and coding Coding fun: statistical problem
Coding fun: statistical problem
Written by Division by Zero   
Monday, 29 March 2010 09:16

A colleague of mine posed an interesting problem:

You are in a game show. There are three doors you must choose from. Behind those doors there is one car and two goats (you obviously want the car). If you choose the door with the car, it's yours. If you choose a door with a goat, you loose. At first you choose from the three doors. After that the game show host will open one of the two other doors which will contain a goat. Now you have to make a final decision: you have two doors left. Will you stick to your choice or will you choose the other door?

We argued about if for a day or two. We weren't sure about the statistical reasoning behind it: we decided to make a little console application for it.

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0 # Remco Hulshoff 2010-03-30 14:08
To my mind this is more a probability problem then a statistical one.

When you start, you have a 2 out of 3 chance that the price is not behind your door but behind one of the other ones.

After the game show host has shown you the door that does not have the car, that entire probability is transferred to the remaining door.

So you now have 1 out of 3 chance at your door and a 2 out of 3 chance at the remaining door. It is therefor beneficial that change doors.
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0 # Bas 2010-03-31 07:03
It is a probability problem. To me probability is the basis or part of statistical math.

I'm still no sure, but I think your solution is right.
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